Risk factors and predictive models of poor prognosis and delayed cerebral ischemia in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage complicated with hydrocephalus

Abstract

ObjectiveTo evaluate the correlation of serum biological markers and related scales to the occurrence of delayed cerebral ischemia and clinical prognosis in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) complicated with acute hydrocephalus before admission.MethodsThe clinical data of 227 patients with pre-admission aSAH complicated with acute hydrocephalus admitted to Henan Provincial People's Hospital from April 2017 to December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were grouped according to the presence or absence of delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) after surgery and the prognosis at 6 months after discharge. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis were performed to analyze the relationship between serum biological indicators combined with aneurysm related clinical score scale and the occurrence and prognosis of delayed cerebral ischemia. ROC curves and nomogram were drawn.ResultsMultivariable Logistic regression analysis showed that high Hunt-Hess grade and surgical clipping were independent risk factors for postoperative DCI (P < 0.05). Older age, higher Hunt-Hess grade, higher CRP and neutrophil levels were independent risk factors for poor prognosis at 6 months after surgery (P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of Hunt-Hess grade and surgical method for predicting DCI in patients with aSAH combined with hydrocephalus after surgery were 0.665 and 0.593. The combined AUC of Hunt-Hess grade and surgical method was 0.685, the sensitivity was 64.9%, and the specificity was 64.7%. The AUC of CRP, neutrophil, age and Hunt-Hess grade for predicting poor prognosis in patients with aSAH combined with hydrocephalus at 6 months after surgery were 0.804, 0.735, 0.596, 0.757, respectively. The combined AUC of CRP, neutrophil, age, Hunt-Hess grade was 0.879, the sensitivity was 79%, and the specificity was 84.5%. According to the correction curve, the predicted probability of the nomogram is basically consistent with the actual probability.ConclusionHunt-Hess grade and surgical method are independent predictors of postoperative DCI in patients with aSAH complicated with hydrocephalus. “CRP,” “neutrophil,” “age” and “Hunt-Hess grade” at admission are independent predictors of clinical prognosis in patients with aSAH complicated with hydrocephalus. The combination of the above indicators has high predictive value.