Scoring Model to Predict Functional Outcome in Poor-Grade Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Abstract

Background: Patients with poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), defined as World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grades IV–V have high rates of disability and mortality. The objective of this study was to accurately prognosticate the outcomes of patients with poor-grade aSAH by developing a new scoring model.Methods: A total of 147 poor-grade aSAH patients in our center were enrolled. Risk variables identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to devise a scoring model (total score, 0–9 points). The scores were estimated on the basis of β coefficients. A cohort of 68 patients from another institute was used to validate the model.Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that modified Fisher grade >2 [odds ratio [OR], 2.972; P = 0.034], age ≥65 years (OR, 3.534; P = 0.006), conservative treatment (OR, 5.078; P = 0.019), WFNS grade V (OR, 2.638; P = 0.029), delayed cerebral ischemia (OR, 3.170; P = 0.016), shunt-dependent hydrocephalus (OR, 3.202; P = 0.032), and cerebral herniation (OR, 7.337; P < 0.001) were significant predictors for poor prognosis [modified Rankin Scale [mRS] ≥3]. A scoring system was constructed by the integration of these factors and divided the poor-grade aSAH patients into three categories: low risk (0–1 points), intermediate risk (2–3 points), and high risk (4–9 points), with predicted risks of poor prognosis of 11, 52, and 87%, respectively (P < 0.001). The area under the curve in the derivation cohort was 0.844 (95% CI, 0.778–0.909). The AUC in the validation cohort was 0.831 (95% CI, 0.732–0.929).Conclusions: The new scoring model can improve prognostication and help decision-making for subsequent complementary treatment in patients with aSAH.