Non-Invasive Prediction of Survival Time of Midline Glioma Patients Using Machine Learning on Multiparametric MRI Radiomics Features

Abstract

ObjectivesTo explore the feasibility of predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with midline glioma using multi-parameter magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features.MethodsData of 84 patients with midline gliomas were retrospectively collected, including 40 patients with OS > 12 months (28 cases were adults, 14 cases were H3 K27M-mutation) and 44 patients with OS < 12 months (29 cases were adults, 31 cases were H3 K27M-mutation). Features were extracted from the largest slice of tumors, which were manually segmented on T2-weighted (T2w), T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (T2 FLAIR), and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (T1c) images. Data were randomly divided into training (70%) and test cohorts (30%) and normalized and standardized using Z-scores. Feature dimensionality reduction was performed using the variance method and maximum relevance and minimum redundancy (mRMR) algorithm. We used the logistic regression algorithm to construct three models for T2w, T2 FLAIR, and T1c images as well as one combined model. The test cohort was used to evaluate the models, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, areas under the curve (AUCs), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were calculated. The nomogram of the combined model was built and evaluated using a calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical application value of the four models.ResultsA total of 1,316 features were extracted from T2w, T2 FLAIR, and T1c images, respectively. And then the best non-redundant features were selected from the extracted features using the variance method and mRMR. Finally, five features were extracted each from T2w, T2 FLAIR, and T1c images, and 12 features were extracted for the combined model. Four models were established using the optimal features. In the test cohort, the combined model performed the best out of all models. The AUCs of the T2w, T2 FLAIR, T1c, and combined models were 0.73, 0.78, 0.74, and 0.87, respectively, and accuracies were 0.72, 0.76, 0.72, and 0.84, respectively. The ROC curves and DCA showed that the combined model had the highest efficiency and most favorable clinical benefits.ConclusionThe combined radiomics model based on multi-parameter MRI features provided a reliable non-invasive method for the prognostic prediction of midline gliomas.