Exploring the utility of a latent variable as comprehensive inflammatory prognostic index in critically ill patients with cerebral infarction

Abstract

ObjectiveWe introduce the comprehensive inflammatory prognostic index (CIPI), a novel prognostic tool for critically ill cerebral infarction patients, designed to meet the urgent need for timely and convenient clinical decision-making in this high-risk patient group.MethodsUsing exploratory factor analysis on selected indices—neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), and systemic immune inflammation index (SIII)—we derived CIPI, a latent variable capturing their combined predictive power. Data from 1,022 patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database were used to develop CIPI-based survival models, with the robustness and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) performance of CIPI validated against an independent dataset of 326 patients from the MIMIC-III CareVue subset. The CIPI’s predictive power for in-hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality was assessed through Kaplan–Meier analysis, univariate and multivariate Cox regression models, and time-dependent AUC analysis. Linearity, subgroup sensitivity analyses and interaction effects with CIPI were also evaluated.ResultsCIPI was an independent prognostic factor, demonstrating a statistically significant association with in-hospital and ICU mortality, when assessed as a continuous and a categorical variable. It showed a linear relationship with mortality rates and demonstrated stability across most subgroups, with no significant interactions observed. Its predictive capabilities for in-hospital and ICU mortality among critically ill cerebral infarction patients matched those of established prognostic indices in the MIMIC database.ConclusionOur study indicates that CIPI is a reliable and effective prognostic tool for critically ill cerebral infarction patients in predicting in-hospital and ICU mortality. Its straightforward calculation, rooted in routine blood tests, enhances its practicality, promising significant utility in clinical settings.