A predictive model using risk factor categories for hospital-acquired pneumonia in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

Abstract

ObjectivesTo identify risk factors for hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and establish a predictive model to aid evaluation.MethodsThe cohorts of 253 aSAH patients were divided into the HAP group (n = 64) and the non-HAP group (n = 189). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify risk factors. A logistic model (Model-Logit) was established based on the independent risk factors. We used risk factor categories to develop a model (Model-Cat). Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to determine the cutoff values. Areas under the curves (AUCs) were calculated to assess the accuracy of models and single factors. The Delong test was performed to compare the AUCs.ResultsThe multivariate logistic analysis showed that the age [p = 0.012, odds ratio (OR) = 1.059, confidence interval (CI) = 1.013–1.107], blood glucose (BG; >7.22 mmol/L; p = 0.011, OR = 2.781, CI = 1.263–6.119), red blood distribution width standard deviation (RDW-SD; p = 0.024, OR = 1.118, CI = 1.015–1.231), and Glasgow coma scale (GCS; p < 0.001, OR = 0.710, CI = 0.633–0.798) were independent risk factors. The Model-Logit was as follows: Logit(P) = −5.467 + 0.057 * Age + 1.023 * BG (>7.22 mmol/L, yes = 1, no = 0) + 0.111 * RDW-SD−0.342 * GCS. The AUCs values of the Model-Logit, GCS, age, BG (>7.22 mmol/L), and RDW-SD were 0.865, 0.819, 0.634, 0.698, and 0.625, respectively. For clinical use, the Model-Cat was established. In the Model-Cat, the AUCs for GCS, age, BG, and RDW-SD were 0.850, 0.760, 0.700, 0.641, and 0.564, respectively. The AUCs of the Model-Logit were insignificantly higher than the Model-Cat (Delong test, p = 0.157). The total points from −3 to 4 and 5 to 14 were classified as low- and high-risk levels, respectively.ConclusionsAge, BG (> 7.22 mmol/L), GCS, and RDW-SD were independent risk factors for HAP in aSAH patients. The Model-Cat was convenient for practical evaluation. The aSAH patients with total points from 5 to 14 had a high risk for HAP, suggesting the need for more attention during treatment.