A new stock market analysis method based on evidential reasoning and hierarchical belief rule base to support investment decision making

Abstract

Stock market analysis is helpful for investors to make reasonable decisions and maintain market stability, and it usually involves not only quantitative data but also qualitative information, so the analysis method needs to have the ability to deal with both types of information comprehensively. In addition, due to the inherent risk of stock investment, it is necessary to ensure that the analysis results can be traced and interpreted. To solve the above problems, a stock market analysis method based on evidential reasoning (ER) and hierarchical belief rule base (HBRB) is proposed in this paper. First, an evaluation model is constructed based on expert knowledge and ER to evaluate stock market sentiment. Then, a stock market decision model based on HBRB is constructed to support investment decision making, such as buying and selling stocks and holding positions. Finally, the Shanghai Stock Index from 2010 to 2019 is used as an example to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed stock market analysis method for investment decision support. Experimental research demonstrates that the proposed method can help analyze the stock market comprehensively and support investors to make investment decisions effectively.