Prognostic Nomograms for Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer‐Specific Survival of Patients With Malignant Pheochromocytoma and Paraganglioma

Abstract

BackgroundMalignant pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma (PPGL) are rare tumors with few prognostic tools. This study aimed to construct nomograms for predicting 3- and 5-year survival for patients with malignant PPGL.MethodsThe patient data was retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A total of 764 patients diagnosed with malignant PPGL from 1975 to 2016 were included in this study. The patients were randomly divided into two cohorts; the training cohort (n = 536) and the validation cohort (n = 228). Univariate analysis, Lasso regression, and multivariate Cox analysis were used to identify independent prognostic factors, which were then utilized to construct survival nomograms. The nomograms were used to predict 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with malignant PPGL. The prediction accuracy of the nomogram was assessed using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCAs) was used to evaluate the performance of survival models.ResultsAge, gender, tumor type, tumor stage, or surgery were independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with malignant PPGL, while age, tumor stage, or surgery were independent prognostic factors for CSS (P <.05). Based on these factors, we successfully constructed the OS and CSS nomograms. The C-indexes were 0.747 and 0.742 for the OS and CSS nomograms, respectively. In addition, both the calibration curves and ROC curves for the model exhibited reliable performance.ConclusionWe successfully constructed nomograms for predicting the OS and CSS of patients with malignant PPGL. The nomograms could inform personalized clinical management of the patients.