Risk factor analysis and prediction model for papillary thyroid carcinoma with lymph node metastasis

Abstract

ObjectiveWe aimed to identify the clinical factors associated with lymph node metastasis (LNM) based on ultrasound characteristics and clinical data, and develop a nomogram for personalized clinical decision-making.MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on 252 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). The patient’s information was subjected to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors. A nomogram to predict LNM was established combining the risk factors. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, cross-validation, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve.ResultsThere are significant differences between LNM and non-LNM groups in terms of age, sex, tumor size, hypoechoic halo around the nodule, thyroid capsule invasion, lymph node microcalcification, lymph node hyperechoic area, peak intensity of contrast (PI), and area under the curve (AUC) of the time intensity curve of contrast (P<0.05). Age, sex, thyroid capsule invasion, lymph node microcalcification were independent predictors of LNM and were used to establish the predictive nomogram. The ROC was 0.800, with excellent discrimination and calibration. The predictive accuracy of 0.757 and the Kappa value was 0.508. The calibration curve, DCA and calibration curve demonstrated that the prediction model had excellent net benefits and clinical practicability.ConclusionAge, sex, thyroid capsule invasion, and lymph node microcalcification were identified as significant risk factors for predicting LNM in patients with PTC. The visualized nomogram model may assist clinicians in predicting the likelihood of LNM in patients with PTC prior to surgery.