Online prediction model for primary aldosteronism in patients with hypertension in Chinese population: A two-center retrospective study

Abstract

BackgroundThe prevalence of primary aldosteronism (PA) varies from 5% to 20% in patients with hypertension but is largely underdiagnosed. Expanding screening for PA to all patients with hypertension to improve diagnostic efficiency is needed. A novel and portable prediction tool that can expand screening for PA is highly desirable.MethodsClinical characteristics and laboratory data of 1,314 patients with hypertension were collected for modeling and randomly divided into a training cohort (919 of 1,314, 70%) and an internal validation cohort (395 of 1,314, 30%). Additionally, an external dataset (n = 285) was used for model validation. Machine learning algorithms were applied to develop a discriminant model. Sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were used to evaluate the performance of the model.ResultsSeven independent risk factors for predicting PA were identified, including age, sex, hypokalemia, serum sodium, serum sodium-to-potassium ratio, anion gap, and alkaline urine. The prediction model showed sufficient predictive accuracy, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.839 (95% CI: 0.81–0.87), 0.814 (95% CI: 0.77–0.86), and 0.839 (95% CI: 0.79–0.89) in the training set, internal validation, and external validation set, respectively. The calibration curves exhibited good agreement between the predictive risk of the model and the actual risk. An online prediction model was developed to make the model more portable to use.ConclusionThe online prediction model we constructed using conventional clinical characteristics and laboratory tests is portable and reliable. This allowed it to be widely used not only in the hospital but also in community health service centers and may help to improve the diagnostic efficiency of PA.