TR score: A noninvasive model to predict histological stages in patients with primary biliary cholangitis

Abstract

IntroductionThe aim of this study was to develop a noninvasive prediction model for histological stages in PBC that is simple, easy to implement, and highly accurate.MethodsA total of 114 patients with PBC were included in this study. Demographic, laboratory data and histological assessments were collected. The independent predictors of histological stages were selected to establish a noninvasive serological model. The scores of 22 noninvasive models were calculated and compared with the established model.ResultsThis study included 99 females (86.8%) and 15 males (13.2%). The number of patients in Scheuer’s stage 1, 2, 3 and 4 was 33 (29.0%), 34 (29.8%), 16 (14.0%), and 31 (27.2%), respectively. TBA and RDW are independent predictors of PBC histological stages. The above indexes were used to establish a noninvasive model-TR score. When predicting early histological change (S1) or liver fibrosis and cirrhosis (S3-S4), the AUROC of TR score were 0.887 (95% CI, 0.809-0.965) and 0.893 (95% CI, 0.816-0.969), higher than all of the other 22 models included in this study. When predicting cirrhosis (S4), its AUROC is still as high as 0.921 (95% CI, 0.837-1.000).ConclusionTR score is an easy, cheap and stable noninvasive model, without complex calculation formulas and tools, and shows good accuracy in diagnosing the histological stages of PBC.