Prediction of early treatment response to the combination therapy of TACE plus lenvatinib and anti-PD-1 antibody immunotherapy for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: Multicenter retrospective study

Abstract

Background and aimThe purpose of this study was to investigate and validate the efficacy of a nomogram model in predicting early objective response rate (ORR) in u-HCC patients receiving a combination of TACE, Lenvatinib, and anti-PD-1 antibody treatment after 3 months (triple therapy).MethodThis study included 169 u-HCC cases from five different hospitals. As training cohorts (n = 102), cases from two major centers were used, and external validation cohorts (n = 67) were drawn from the other three centers. The clinical data and contrast-enhanced MRI characteristics of patients were included in this retrospective study. For evaluating MRI treatment responses, the modified revaluation criteria in solid tumors (mRECIST) were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to select relevant variables and develop a nomogram model. Our as-constructed nomogram was highly consistent and clinically useful, as confirmed by the calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA); an independent external cohort also calibrated the nomogram.ResultsThe ORR was 60.9% and the risk of early ORR was independently predicted by AFP, portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT), tumor number, and size in both the training (C-index = 0.853) and test (C-index = 0.800) cohorts. The calibration curve revealed that the nomogram-predicted values were consistent with the actual response rates in both cohorts. Furthermore, DCA indicated that our developed nomogram performed well in clinical settings.ConclusionThe nomogram model accurately predicts early ORR achieved by triple therapy in u-HCC patients, which aids in individual decision-making and modifying additional therapies for u-HCC cases.