Direct prediction of steam cracking products from naphtha bulk properties: Application of the two sub-networks ANN

Abstract

Steam cracking of naphtha is an important process for the production of olefins. Applying artificial intelligence helps achieve high-frequency real-time optimization strategy and process control. This work employs an artificial neural network (ANN) model with two sub-networks to simulate the naphtha steam cracking process. In the first feedstock composition ANN, the detailed feedstock compositions are determined from the limited naphtha bulk properties. In the second reactor ANN, the cracking product yields are predicted from the feedstock compositions and operating conditions. The combination of these two sub-networks has the ability to accurately and rapidly predict the product yields directly from naphtha bulk properties. Two different feedstock composition ANN strategies are proposed and compared. The results show that with the special design of dividing the output layer into five groups of PIONA, the prediction accuracy of product yields is significantly improved. The mean absolute error of 11 cracking products is 0.53wt% for 472 test sets. The comparison results show that this indirect feedstock composition ANN has lower product prediction errors, not just the reduction of the total error of the feedstock composition. The critical factor is ensuring that PIONA contents are equal to the actual values. The use of an indirect feedstock composition strategy is a means that can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the whole ANN model.