Solving the mysteries of Lahore smog: the fifth season in the country

Abstract

South Asian smog is an annually recurring air pollution event that is characterized by high concentrations of air pollutants, low visibility, and severe socio-economic disruptions. It is most frequently observed across the north-western parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). Since 2016, it has become so frequent and pervasive that they are colloquially referred to as “the fifth season” in the region. During this season populations residing in this area including cities such as Lahore, Amritsar, Faisalabad, Multan, Delhi etc. are exposed to hazardous levels of air pollution. This study attempts to understand the reasons for the recent increase in the intensity and frequency of intense air pollution episodes by utilizing ground-based and satellite observations. Time-series analysis, seasonal and annual variations in PM2.5 and AOD were carried out. Satellite data of UVAAI, CO, and fire count were used to determine the fire incidences and aerosol characterization. The results indicate that during the last decade, there has been an increase in air pollution sources while crop residue burning, and motor vehicles have greatly contributed to the increased frequency and intensity of such events. The meteorological and topographical data analysis revealed that the IGP provides ample cloud-condensation nuclei and optimum conditions for the accumulations of pollutants, especially in the post-monsoon and winter periods. The Mann-Kendall test was performed to confirm the annual and seasonal trends of PM2.5. The major cities of South Asia such as Lahore, Delhi, Kathmandu, and Dhaka have recently shown a decreasing trend with respect to annual AOD. However, an increase has been observed for the period of post-monsoon especially for cities of Lahore and Delhi. To distinguish potential sources of air pollutants during extreme smog episodes in the region, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was conducted to estimate the most contributing factors to the annual smog episodes. According to the data, the transboundary pollution resulting from open-field agriculture fires has been assigned moderate importance over vehicular emissions. A HYSPLIT trajectory model coupled with ground observations and satellite data shows that the agricultural fires do have a profound impact on the air quality of the region. It highlights the importance of transboundary pollution and cooperation among cities, regions, and countries across the shared airshed of the Indo-Gangetic Plains.