Development and validation of a prediction model for mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients

Abstract

BackgroundEarly prediction of prognosis may help early treatment measures to reduce mortality in critically ill coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients. The study aimed to develop a mortality prediction model for critically ill COVID-19 patients.MethodsThis retrospective study analyzed the clinical data of critically ill COVID-19 patients in an intensive care unit between April and June 2022. Propensity matching scores were used to reduce the effect of confounding factors. A predictive model was built using logistic regression analysis and visualized using a nomogram. Calibration and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to estimate the accuracy and predictive value of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to examine the value of the model for clinical interventions.ResultsIn total, 137 critically ill COVID-19 patients were enrolled; 84 survived, and 53 died. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatinine, and myoglobin levels were independent prognostic factors. We constructed logistic regression prediction models using the seven least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression-selected variables (hematocrit, red blood cell distribution width-standard deviation, procalcitonin, AST, creatinine, potassium, and myoglobin; Model 1) and three independent factor variables (Model 2). The calibration curves suggested that the actual predictions of the two models were similar to the ideal predictions. The ROC curve indicated that both models had good predictive power, and Model 1 had better predictive power than Model 2. The DCA results suggested that the model intervention was beneficial to patients and patients benefited more from Model 1 than from Model 2.ConclusionThe predictive model constructed using characteristic variables screened using LASSO regression can accurately predict the prognosis of critically ill COVID-19 patients. This model can assist clinicians in implementing early interventions. External validation by prospective large-sample studies is required.