Prediction of Graft Survival Post-liver Transplantation by L-GrAFT Risk Score Model, EASE Score, MEAF Scoring, and EAD

Abstract

Background: Early allograft dysfunction (EAD) is correlated with poor patient or graft survival in liver transplantation. However, the power of distinct definitions of EAD in prediction of graft survival is unclear.Methods: This retrospective, single-center study reviewed data of 677 recipients undergoing orthotopic liver transplant between July 2015 and June 2020. The following EAD definitions were compared: liver graft assessment following transplantation (L-GrAFT) risk score model, early allograft failure simplified estimation score (EASE), model for early allograft function (MEAF) scoring, and Olthoff criteria. Risk factors for L-GrAFT7 high risk group were evaluated with univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis.Results: L-GrAFT7 had a satisfied C-statistic of 0.87 in predicting a 3-month graft survival which significantly outperformed MEAF (C-statistic = 0.78, P = 0.01) and EAD (C-statistic = 0.75, P < 0.001), respectively. L-GrAFT10, EASE was similar to L-GrAFT7, and they had no statistical significance in predicting survival. Laboratory model for end-stage liver disease score and cold ischemia time are risk factors of L-GrAFT7 high-risk group.Conclusion: L-GrAFT7 risk score is capable for better predicting the 3-month graft survival than the MEAF and EAD in a Chinese cohort, which might standardize assessment of early graft function and serve as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trial.