Construction of a new clinical staging system for colorectal cancer based on the lymph node ratio: A validation study

Abstract

AimThis study aims to construct a new staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC) based on the lymph node ratio (LNR) as a supplement to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system for predicting the prognosis of CRC patients with <12 lymph nodes.MethodsThe data of 26,695 CRC patients with <12 lymph nodes were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database as a training set. A total of 635 CRC patients were also enrolled from Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital affiliated with Yangzhou University as an independent validation set. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to obtain the LNR cutoff value. Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method, and the log-rank test was used for comparisons of differences among the survival curves. The monotonic decreasing trend of the overall survival curve in the staging system was expressed by the linear correlation degree R.ResultsThe 5-year survival rates of patients in the training set based on the AJCC staging system from stage I to stage IV were 75.6% (95%CI: 74.4–76.8), 59.8% (95%CI: 58.6–61.0), 42.1% (95%CI: 34.5–49.7), 33.2% (95%CI: 24.6–41.8), 72.0% (95%CI: 69.1–74.9), 48.8% (95%CI: 47.4–50.2), 26.5% (95%CI: 23.0–30.0), and 11.3% (95%CI: 10.3–12.3). The 5-year survival rates of patients in the training set from stage I to stage IIIC were 80.4%, 72.9%, 59.8%, 48.4%, 32.5%, and 15.0%, according to the TNM + LNR (TNRM) staging system. According to the AJCC staging system, the 5-year survival rates of patients in the validation set from stage I to stage IIIC were 91.3%, 90.8%, 72.6%, 61.3%, 72.4%, 58.1%, and 32.8%. Based on the TNRM staging system, the 5-year survival rates of patients in the validation set from stage I to stage IIIC were 99.2%, 90.5%, 81.4%, 78.6%, 60.2%, and 35.8%.ConclusionThe TNRM staging system successfully eliminated “survival paradox” in the AJCC staging system, which might be superior to the AJCC staging system.