A Nomogram Based on the Log Odds of Positive Lymph Nodes Predicts the Prognosis of Patients With Distal Cholangiocarcinoma After Surgery

Abstract

Background: Lymph node (LN) metastasis is considered one of the most important risk factors affecting the prognosis of distal cholangiocarcinoma (DCC). This study aimed to demonstrate the superiority of log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) compared with other LN stages, and to establish a novel prognostic nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of DCC.Methods: From the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, the data of 676 patients after DCC radical operation were screened, and patients were randomly divided into training (n = 474) and validation sets (n = 474). The prognostic evaluation performance of the LODDS and American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) N stage and lymph node ratio (LNR) were compared using the Akaike information criteria, receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC), and C-index. Multivariate Cox analysis was used to screen independent risk factors, and a LODDS-based nomogram prognostic staging model was established. The nomogram's precision was verified by C-index, calibration curves, and AUC, and the results were compared with those of the AJCC TNM staging system.Results:Compared with the other two stages of LN metastasis, LODDS was most effective in predicting CSS in patients with DCC. Multivariate analysis proved that LODDS, histologic grade, SEER historic stage, and tumor size were independent risk factors for DCC. The C-index of the nomogram, based on the above factors, in the validation set was 0.663. The 1-, 3-, and 5-y AUCs were 0.735, 0.679, and 0.745, respectively. Its good performance was also verified by calibration curves. In addition, the C-index and Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the nomogram performed better than the AJCC TNM staging system.Conclusion:For postoperative patients with DCC, the LODDS stage yielded better prognostic efficiency than the AJCC N and LNR stages. Compared with the AJCC TNM staging system, the nomogram, based on the LODDS, demonstrated superior performance.