Increase in Arctic Oscillations explains most interannual variability in Russia’s wildfires

Abstract

Over the past two decades, the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases from boreal wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere have drawn significant attention, underscoring an unprecedented wildfire season in 2021. Our calculations indicate that between 2002 and 2020, wildfires in Russia released approximately 726 ± 280 Tg CO2eqv yr−1. This aligns closely with similar estimates derived from remote sensing data, far surpassing the earlier approximations found in the Russian National Inventory Report (NIR) by a factor of 2 to 3. Notably, in 2021 alone, Russia’s wildfires emitted an exceptionally high amount of 1,700 Tg CO2eqv, exceeding the carbon emissions from the country’s fossil fuel consumption. Consequently, this situation led to an almost complete counterbalance of carbon assimilation by Russian forests. Our analysis attributes over 50% of the variation in wildfire frequency between 2002 and 2021 to shifts in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This suggests a potential for utilizing AO as a predictive variable for wildfires. It’s noteworthy that the AO itself is influenced by the sustained regression of Arctic sea-ice. From this, it can be inferred that in the foreseeable future, Russian forests might undergo a transition from their role as carbon sinks to the potential net contributors of carbon to the atmosphere.