Construction and validation of a novel web-based nomogram for patients with lung cancer with bone metastasis: A real-world analysis based on the SEER database

Abstract

PurposePatients with lung cancer with bone metastasis (LCBM) often have a very poor prognosis. The purpose of this study is to characterize the prevalence and associated factors and to develop a prognostic nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with LCBM using multicenter population-based data.MethodsPatients with LCBM at the time of diagnosis were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) from 2010 to 2015. Multivariable and univariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with all-cause mortality and lung cancer (LC)–specific mortality. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated with the calibration curves, area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA). Kaplan–Meier analysis and log-rank tests were used to estimate the survival times of patients with LCBM.ResultsWe finally identified 26,367 patients with LCBM who were selected for survival analysis. Multivariate analysis demonstrated age, sex, T stage, N stage, grade, histology, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, primary site, primary surgery, liver metastasis, and brain metastasis as independent predictors for LCBM. The AUC values of the nomogram for the OS prediction were 0.755, 0.746, and 0.775 in the training cohort; 0.757, 0.763, and 0.765 in the internal validation cohort; and 0.769, 0.781, and 0.867 in the external validation cohort. For CSS, the values were 0.753, 0.753, and 0.757 in the training cohort; 0.753, 0.753, and 0.757 in the internal validation cohort; and 0.767, 0.774, and 0.872 in the external validation cohort.ConclusionsOur study constructs a new prognostic model and clearly presents the clinicopathological features and survival analysis of patients with LCBM. The result indicated that the nomograms had favorable discrimination, good consistency, and clinical benefits in patients. In addition, our constructed nomogram prediction models may assist physicians in evaluating individualized prognosis and deciding on treatment for patients.