A Prognostic Risk Stratification Model to Identify Potential Population Benefiting From Postmastectomy Radiotherapy in T1–2 Breast Cancer With 1–3 Positive Axillary Lymph Nodes

Abstract

Background and ObjectivesTo establish a prognostic stratification nomogram for T1–2 breast cancer with 1–3 positive lymph nodes to determine which patients can benefit from postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT).MethodsA population-based study was conducted utilizing data collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Chi-square test or Fisher exact test was used to compare the distribution of characteristics. Cox analysis identified significant prognostic factors for survival. A prognostic stratification model was constructed by R software. Propensity score matching was applied to balance characteristics between PMRT cohort and control cohort. Kaplan-Meier method was performed to evaluate the performance of stratification and the benefits of PMRT in the total population and three risk groups.ResultsThe overall performance of the nomogram was good (3-year, 5-year, 10-year AUC were 0.75, 0.72 and 0.67, respectively). The nomogram was performed to excellently distinguish low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups with 10-year overall survival (OS) of 86.9%, 73.7%, and 62.7%, respectively (P<0.001). In the high-risk group, PMRT can significantly better OS with 10-year all-cause mortality reduced by 6.7% (P = 0.027). However, there was no significant survival difference between PMRT cohort and control cohort in low-risk (P=0.49) and moderate-risk groups (P = 0.35).ConclusionThe current study developed the first prognostic stratification nomogram for T1–2 breast cancer with 1–3 positive axillary lymph nodes and found that patients in the high-risk group may be easier to benefit from PMRT.