Development and External Validation of a Novel Model for Predicting Postsurgical Recurrence and Overall Survival After Cytoreductive R0 Resection of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Abstract

PurposeTreatment of epithelial ovarian cancer is evolving towards personalization and precision, which require patient-specific estimates of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS).Patients and MethodsMedical records of 1173 patients who underwent debulking surgery in our center were comprehensively reviewed and randomly allocated into a derivation cohort of 879 patients and an internal validation cohort of 294 patients. Five hundred and seventy-seven patients from the other three cancer centers served as the external validation cohort. A novel nomogram model for PFS and OS was constructed based on independent predictors identified by multivariable Cox regression analysis. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the model were measured using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve.ResultsThe C-index values were 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76–0.88) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.78–0.90) for the PFS and OS models, respectively, substantially higher than those obtained with the FIGO staging system and most nomograms reported for use in epithelial ovarian cancer. The nomogram score could clearly classify the patients into subgroups with different risks of recurrence or postoperative mortality. The online versions of our nomograms are available at https://eocnomogram.shinyapps.io/eocpfs/ and https://eocnomogram.shinyapps.io/eocos/.ConclusionA externally validated nomogram predicting OS and PFS in patients after R0 reduction surgery was established using a propensity score matching model. This nomogram may be useful in estimating individual recurrence risk and guiding personalized surveillance programs for patients after surgery, and it could potentially aid clinical decision-making or stratification for clinical trials.