Identification of High-Risk of Recurrence in Clinical Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Abstract

ObjectiveThis study aimed to identify patients at a high risk of recurrence using preoperative high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) in clinical stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).MethodsA total of 567 patients who underwent screening and 1,216 who underwent external validation for clinical stage I NSCLC underwent lobectomy or segmentectomy. Staging was used on the basis of the 8th edition of the tumor–node–metastasis classification. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method, and the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent prognostic factors for RFS.ResultsA multivariable Cox analysis identified solid component size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30–2.12; P < 0.001) and pure solid type (HR, 1.82; 95% CI 1.11–2.96; P = 0.017) on HRCT findings as independent prognostic factors for RFS. When patients were divided into high-risk (n = 331; solid component size of >2 cm or pure solid type) and low-risk (n = 236; solid component size of ≤2 cm and part solid type) groups, there was a significant difference in RFS (HR, 5.33; 95% CI 3.09–9.19; 5-year RFS, 69.8% vs. 92.9%, respectively; P < 0.001). This was confirmed in the validation set (HR, 5.32; 95% CI 3.61–7.85; 5-year RFS, 72.0% vs. 94.8%, respectively; P < 0.001).ConclusionsIn clinical stage I NSCLC, patients with a solid component size of >2 cm or pure solid type on HRCT were at a high risk of recurrence.