A Machine Learning-Modified Novel Nomogram to Predict Perioperative Blood Transfusion of Total Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer

Abstract

BackgroundPerioperative blood transfusion reserves are limited, and the outcome of blood transfusion remains unclear. Therefore, it is important to prepare plans for perioperative blood transfusions. This study aimed to establish a risk assessment model to guide clinical patient management.MethodsThis retrospective comparative study involving 513 patients who had total gastrectomy (TG) between January 2018 and January 2021 was conducted using propensity score matching (PSM). The influencing factors were explored by logistic regression, correlation analysis, and machine learning; then, a nomogram was established.ResultsAfter assessment of the importance of factors through machine learning, blood loss, preoperative controlling nutritional status (CONUT), hemoglobin (Hb), and the triglyceride–glucose (TyG) index were considered as the modified transfusion-related factors. The modified model was not considered to be different from the original model in terms of performance, but is simpler. A nomogram was created, with a C-index of 0.834, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated good clinical benefit.ConclusionsA nomogram was established and modified with machine learning, which suggests the importance of the patient’s integral condition. This emphasizes that caution should be exercised regarding transfusions, and, if necessary, preoperative nutritional interventions or delayed surgery should be implemented for safety.