A Computed Tomography Nomogram for Assessing the Malignancy Risk of Focal Liver Lesions in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Preliminary Study

Abstract

PurposeThe detection and characterization of focal liver lesions (FLLs) in patients with cirrhosis is challenging. Accurate information about FLLs is key to their management, which can range from conservative methods to surgical excision. We sought to develop a nomogram that incorporates clinical risk factors, blood indicators, and enhanced computed tomography (CT) imaging findings to predict the nature of FLLs in cirrhotic livers.MethodA total of 348 surgically confirmed FLLs were included. CT findings and clinical data were assessed. All factors with P < 0.05 in univariate analysis were included in multivariate analysis. ROC analysis was performed, and a nomogram was constructed based on the multivariate logistic regression analysis results.ResultsThe FLLs were either benign (n = 79) or malignant (n = 269). Logistic regression evaluated independent factors that positively affected malignancy. AFP (OR = 10.547), arterial phase hyperenhancement (APHE) (OR = 740.876), washout (OR = 0.028), satellite lesions (OR = 15.164), ascites (OR = 156.241), and nodule-in-nodule architecture (OR =27.401) were independent predictors of malignancy. The combined predictors had excellent performance in differentiating benign and malignant lesions, with an AUC of 0.959, a sensitivity of 95.24%, and a specificity of 87.5% in the training cohort and AUC of 0.981, sensitivity of 94.74%, and specificity of 93.33% in the test cohort. The C-index was 96.80%, and calibration curves showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and the actual data.ConclusionsThe nomogram showed excellent discrimination and calibration for malignancy risk prediction, and it may aid in making FLLs treatment decisions.