Nomogram to predict postoperative complications after cytoreductive surgery for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

Abstract

ObjectiveTo establish nomograms to predict the risk of postoperative complications following cytoreductive surgery in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (AEOC).MethodsA multicenter retrospective cohort study that included patients with FIGO stage IIIC-IV epithelial ovarian cancer who underwent cytoreductive surgery was designed. By using univariate and multivariate analyses, patient preoperative characteristics were used to predict the risk of postoperative complications. Multivariate modeling was used to develop Nomograms.ResultsOverall, 585 AEOC patients were included for analysis (training cohort = 426, extrapolation cohort = 159). According to the findings, the training cohort observed an incidence of postoperative overall and severe complications of 28.87% and 6.10%, respectively. Modified frailty index (mFI) (OR 1.96 and 2.18), FIGO stage (OR 2.31 and 3.22), and Surgical Complexity Score (SCS) (OR 1.16 and 1.23) were the clinical factors that were most substantially associated to the incidence of overall and severe complications, respectively. The resulting nomograms demonstrated great internal discrimination, good consistency, and stable calibration, with C-index of 0.74 and 0.78 for overall and severe complications prediction, respectively. A satisfactory external discrimination was also indicated by the extrapolation cohort, with the C-index for predicting overall and severe complications being 0.92 and 0.91, respectively.ConclusionsThe risk of considerable postoperative morbidity exists after cytoreductive surgery for AEOC. These two nomograms with good discrimination and calibration might be useful to guide clinical decision-making and help doctors assess the probability of postoperative complications for AEOC patients.