Combining Clinicopathology, IVIM-DWI and Texture Parameters for a Nomogram to Predict Treatment Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients

Abstract

ObjectivesThis study aimed to create a nomogram for the risk prediction of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) resistance in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).MethodsClinical data in this retrospective study were collected from a total of 135 LARC patients admitted to our hospital from June 2016 to December 2020. After screening by inclusion and exclusion criteria, 62 patients were included in the study. Texture analysis (TA) was performed on T2WI and DWI images. Patients were divided into response group (CR+PR) and no-response group (SD+PD) according to efficacy assessment. Multivariate analysis was performed on clinicopathology, IVIM-DWI and texture parameters for screening of independent predictors. A nomogram was created and model fit and clinical net benefit were assessed.ResultsMultivariate analysis of clinicopathology parameters showed that the differentiation and T stage were independent predictors (OR values were 14.516 and 11.589, resp.; P<0.05). Multivariate analysis of IVIM-DWI and texture parameters showed that f value and Rads-score were independent predictors (OR values were 0.855, 2.790, resp.; P<0.05). In this study, clinicopathology together with IVIM-DWI and texture parameters showed the best predictive efficacy (AUC=0.979). The nomogram showed good predictive performance and stability in identifying high-risk LARC patients who are resistant to nCRT (C-index=0.979). Decision curve analyses showed that the nomogram had the best clinical net benefit. Ten-fold cross-validation results showed that the average AUC value was 0.967, and the average C-index was 0.966.ConclusionsThe nomogram combining the differentiation, T stage, f value and Rads-score can effectively estimate the risk of nCRT resistance in patients with LARC.