Survival Analysis and Prediction Model of ASCP Based on SEER Database

Abstract

BackgroundThis study aims to compare the incidence and clinical and survival characteristics of adenosquamous carcinoma of the pancreas (ASCP) and adenomatous carcinoma of the pancreas (ACP), analyze the survival factors of ASCP and construct a prognostic model.MethodPatients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer from 2000 to 2018 are selected from the SEER database. ASCP and ACP are compared in terms of epidemiology, clinical characteristics and prognosis. Cases are matched in a 1:2 ratio, and survival analysis is performed. The Cox proportional hazard model is used to determine covariates related to overall survival (OS), and an ASCP prognosis nomogram is constructed and verified by consistency index (C-index), calibration chart and decision curve analysis (DCA). The accuracy of the model is compared with that of AJCC.Stage and SEER.Stage to obtain the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Resultsthe age-adjusted incidence of ACP increased significantly over time from 2000 to 2008 and from 2008 to 2018 (P < 0.05). APC was 2.01% (95% CI: 1.95–2.21) and 1.08% (95% CI: 0.93–1.25) respectively. The age-adjusted incidence of ASCP increased with time from 2000 to 2018 (P < 0.05) and APC was 3.64% (95% CI: 3.25–4.01).After propensity score matching (PSM), the OS and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of ACP are better than those of ASCP. The survival time of ASCP is significantly improved by the combined treatment of surgery + chemotherapy + radiotherapy, with a median OS of 31 months. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis shows that age, race, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy and tumor size are independent factors affecting the prognosis. DCA and area under the curve (AUC) value shows that the model has good discrimination ability.ConclusionThe OS prognosis of ASCP is worse than that of ACP, and the nomogram has high accuracy for the prognosis prediction of ASCP.