Early warning analysis of mountain flood disaster based on Copula function risk combination

Abstract

Mountain torrent disaster prevention is the focus of flood control and disaster reduction in China. Critical rainfall is an important indicator to determine the success or failure of mountain torrent disaster early warning. In this paper, the M-Copula function is introduced, the multi-dimensional joint distribution of critical rainfall is constructed, and the joint distribution of rainfall and peak rainfall intensity is analyzed. Taking A village in Xinxian County as an example. The critical rainfall of the combined probability is calculated, and the critical rainfall of the flash flood disaster water level, the pre-shift warning and the sharp-shift warning is warned and analyzed. The results show that the flood peak modulus calculated by Yishangfan group is 8.89, which has certain rules for the flood peak modulus of rivers in hilly areas. The larger the basin area is, the smaller the flood peak modulus is, the smaller the area is, and the larger the flood peak modulus is. The calculation result of the design flow of 533 m3/s is reasonable. It is reasonable and reliable to select the M-Copula function as the connection function to fit the joint distribution of rainfall and peak rainfall intensity, which can provide theoretical support for flash flood disaster warning in other regions.