Prediction of flash flood susceptibility using integrating analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and frequency ratio (FR) algorithms

Abstract

The landscape of Pakistan is vulnerable to flood and periodically affected by floods of different magnitudes. The aim of this study was aimed to assess the flash flood susceptibility of district Jhelum, Punjab, Pakistan using geospatial model and Frequency Ratio and Analytical Hierarchy Process. Also, the study considered eight most influential flood-causing parameters are Digital Elevation Model, slop, distance from the river, drainage density, Land use/Land cover, geology, soil resistivity (soil consisting of different rocks and soil formation) and rainfall deviation. The rainfall data was collected from weather stations in the vicinity of the study area. Estimated weight was allotted to each flood-inducing factors with the help of AHP and FR. Through the use of the overlay analysis, each of the factors were brought together, and the value of drainage density was awarded the maximum possible score. According to the study several areas of the region based on the parameters have been classified in flood zones viz, very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low risk, and very low risk. In the light of the results obtained, 4% of the study area that accounts for 86.25 km2 is at high risk of flood. The areas like Bagham, Sohawa, Domeli, Turkai, Jogi Tillas, Chang Wala, Dandot Khewra were located at the very high elevation. Whereas Potha, Samothi, Chaklana, Bagrian, Tilla Jogian, Nandna, Rawal high-risk zones and have been damaged badly in the flood history of the area. This study is the first of its kind conducted on the Jhelum District and provides guidelines for disaster management authorities and response agencies, infrastructure planners, watershed management, and climatologists.