Flood vulnerability assessment in the flood prone area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Abstract

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, causing extensive damage to human lives, property, and the environment. Pakistan is susceptible to natural calamities, such as floods, resulting in millions of people being impacted yearly. It has been demonstrated that flood severity is rising and may continue to escalate in the coming years because of climate change-induced changes in monsoon precipitation in the country. Given the country’s exposure to flooding, it is essential to assess the vulnerability to floods to prepare for and mitigate their impact in Pakistan. This study provides a new conceptual framework for assessing flood risk and vulnerability in Charsadda, a flood-prone district in Pakistan. It evaluates the vulnerability of settlements to floods based on four indicators: population density, the average gross domestic product (GDP) of land, the distance between settlements and rivers, and land use and cover (LULC). The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique was integrated with the geographical information system (GIS) to assess the level of vulnerability to floods in the study area. The results reveal a higher degree of vulnerability to floods in the region. The spatial pattern of vulnerable areas reveals a significant connection between high-risk flood areas and densely populated areas during different flood seasons. The results further reveal that more than 60% of the area is arable land and is highly susceptible to flood. The population and their land-use setup show high and extremely high values of vulnerability in the normalized threshold of 0.3–0.4, respectively. The study provides an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of the chosen indicators, evaluation methods, and results, making this a valuable contribution to the field of flood vulnerability assessment. The findings of this study also include thematic maps and related information to the stakeholders for effective vulnerability management in the study area.