Quantifying the Spatial–Temporal Patterns and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions Based on the Coupling Effect of Water–Land Resources in Arid Inland Regions

Abstract

Agricultural carbon emissions are supposed to be a fundamental component of the regional carbon cycle in regions with intense agricultural activities. However, the patterns and controls of agricultural carbon emissions based on the water–land resource coupling effect remain poorly understood in arid inland regions. Thus, we constructed a research framework combining water and land resources with agricultural carbon emissions to assess the linkage of water–land–agricultural carbon emissions in arid inland regions. The agricultural carbon emission measurement model and water–land resource coupling coordination degree model (WLCD) were used for exploring the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural carbon emissions and water–land elements. The interaction between societal , economic , and ecological factors on agricultural carbon emissions was clarified using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI). The applicability of the method was verified in the Zhangye oasis in northwest China. The results are as follows: 1) from 2012 to 2019, the agricultural carbon emissions in Zhangye increased first and then declined, with 96% of which mainly coming from chemical fertilizers and plowing; 2) the coupling coordination index of water–land resources in Zhangye increased from 0.3715 in 2012 to 0.5399 in 2019, an increase of 45.33%, indicating a conversion from mild disordered to basic coordination; 3) regarding the effects among the factors, the economic output of agricultural water resource, cropland area per capita, and population (the water and land resource ratio and agricultural carbon emission intensity) exerted positive (negative) impacts on agricultural carbon emissions. Accordingly, it is suggested that the green and low-carbon development strategies for oasis agriculture require a high level of integrated planning and management of water and land resources, as well as comprehensive consideration of low-carbon agriculture and elements related to water and land.