Seribu islands in the megacities of Jakarta on the frontlines of the climate crisis

Abstract

Jakarta, the biggest city in Indonesia, has one district that consists of hundreds of islands that face severe climate hazards called the Seribu Islands complex. This study explores the evidence of local climate trends, the potential impact, and its policy intervention on Seribu Islands, which are classified as small island states and widely recognized as being especially at risk from climate change, threatening their economic and social growth. Long-term in-situ climate data, satellite data, interviews with local stakeholders, and literature reviews were utilized to conduct an exploratory descriptive analysis. The result revealed that Seribu Island experienced a 2.2°C increase in minimum temperature from 1980 until 2021, 3.5-fold of the frequency of extreme temperature and precipitation, 4.17 mm/year of sea level rise, and 10.8 ha land expansion in the densest island. Moreover, about 67% of the inhabitant’s islands were occupied by built-up areas that cover more than 50% of the region. Further, under the worst-case SLR scenario, about 58.4% of the area will be affected, and about 29 islands will disappear. This evidence was also reinforced by every single local respondent’s viewpoint who felt that climate change is occurring in the region. Even though the region faces a severe threat of climate change, the issue of climate change adaptation has not been mainstreamed yet into their local policy. Therefore, the urgency of a real-time climate ground station, a real-time early warning system, and establishing a Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) at the district level have yet to be addressed. Furthermore, the knowledge gained from such case studies is outlined, along with some scientific evidence that may assist small island states in better fostering the opportunities provided by climate change adaptation.