Central Asia daily extreme precipitation in observations and gridded datasets: A threshold criteria perspective

Abstract

The extreme precipitation threshold is fundamental to extreme precipitation research, directly affecting the cognition of extreme characteristics. Based on the daily precipitation data of 62 meteorological stations from 1985 to 2005, this study uses parametric and non-parametric approaches to determine the extreme precipitation threshold in Central Asia, analyzes the statistics and spatial distribution of different threshold criteria, and discusses the trend of extreme precipitation. The capability of the grid dataset of APHRODITE and GPCC in the extreme precipitation analysis in Central Asia is evaluated from the threshold perspective. The results are as follows: 1) Contrary to the parametric approach, the threshold determined by the percentile indices in the warm season is slightly higher than in the cold season. The mean threshold of the warm (cold) season in Central Asia is defined by the 95th percentile index and the 10-year return period, which are 14.0 mm (13.5 mm) and 24.2 mm (25.7 mm), respectively. 2) The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation threshold in Central Asia is higher in the southeast and lower in the north during the cold season; In the warm season, it is high in the north and southwest and low in the center. 3) Although both APHRODITE and GPCC datasets can basically reproduce the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation threshold, they underestimate the magnitude of the threshold, especially APHRODITE. 4) There is no obvious extreme precipitation trend in Central Asia during the study period. Furthermore, the trend in characteristics of extreme precipitation based on different thresholds shows a consistent trend in time but not spatially. We suggest that the threshold selection should adjust the balance between sufficient samples and extreme values according to actual conditions. The results of this study can provide a reference for extreme precipitation threshold criteria under specific application conditions in Central Asia.