An Assessment of the Impact of Natural Resource Price and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Financial Asset Performance: Evidence From Bitcoin

Abstract

The aim of this study is to gauge the impact of global economic policy uncertainty and natural resource prices, that is, oil prices and gold prices, on Bitcoin returns by using monthly data spanning from May 2013 to December 2021. The study applies ARDL and nonlinear ARDL for evaluating the symmetric and asymmetric effects of Global Economic Uncertainty (GU), oil price (O), and natural gas price on Bitcoin volatility investigated by using the ARCH-GARCH-ERAGCH and non-granger causality test. ARDL model estimation establishes a long-run cointegration between GU, O, G, and Bitcoin. Moreover, GU and oil price exhibits a negative association with Bitcoin and positive influences running from gold price shock to Bitcoin in the long run. NARDL results ascertain the long-run asymmetric relations between GU, oil price, gold price (G), and Bitcoin return. Furthermore, GU’s asymmetric effect and positive shock in gold price negatively linked to Bitcoin return in the long run, whereas asymmetric shock in oil price and negative shocks in gold price established a positive linkage with Bitcoin. The results of ARCH effects disclose the volatility persistence in the variables. The causality test reveals that the feedback hypothesis explains the causal effects between GU and Bitcoin and unidirectional causality running from Bitcoin to gold price and oil price to Bitcoin.