Carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin: Decoupling and driving factors

Abstract

In the context of global countries’ pursuit of sustainable development and “dual carbon” goals of China, this paper combines the Tapio decoupling model, Kaya’s equation and LMDI decomposition method to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth and the driving factors of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China from 2001 to 2019. It is found that the decoupling state of CO2 and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin shows a trend of expansion negative decoupling - expansion connection - weak decoupling - strong decoupling, but different regions shows some heterogeneity. The economic intensity effect and population size effect generally play a positive role in driving carbon emissions, while carbon emission intensity, industrial structure and energy structure effect play a negative role in driving carbon emissions in most years. From the regional perspective, the energy consumption structure in the middle reaches is the most important factor to promote carbon emissions. In terms of time period, the industrial structure effect is the driving factor of carbon emissions in the decoupling state overall as expansionary linkage, while it is the inhibitor of carbon emissions in the decoupling state overall as weak decoupling. This study also puts forward countermeasures such as optimize the energy structure and upgrade the industrial structure to achieve green and high-quality economic development in the YRB.