Carbon Emission Peak Paths Under Different Scenarios Based on the LEAP Model—A Case Study of Suzhou, China

Abstract

Environmental pollution caused by energy consumption is a global problem. Optimization of the energy system will contribute to the sustainable development of city, especially of the industrial cities. Based on the Long-term Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) model, the LEAP-Suzhou model was established to explore the energy system optimization and emission reduction path of Suzhou to 2050. By accounting for current energy consumption and carbon emissions, the baseline scenario (BAU) was established. According to the different methods and intensities of energy transformation, an industrial structure optimization scenario (ISO), an energy structure optimization scenario (ESO), and an energy transformation optimization scenario (ETD) were created. Combined with the energy flow diagram, the energy structure and the direction of optimization were analyzed. The results showed that the baseline scenario will consume 259.954 million tons of standard coal by 2050, and the carbon emission will be 677.6 Mt. Compared with BAU, the ISO, ESO, and ETD scenarios will reduce energy consumption by 37.9%, 37.4%, and 74.8%, respectively, by 2050. ETD had the best carbon dioxide reduction, followed by ESO, and finally ISO. Among them, the carbon emission of ETD will reach its peak around 2030 and decrease to 73.8 Mt in 2050, resulting in the best emission reduction effect. This scenario is the best path for Suzhou to achieve the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality” and sustainable development. The LEAP-Suzhou model successfully explores the low carbon path of Suzhou, provides policy guidance for the optimization of energy transition and carbon neutrality of industrial cities, In the future, the energy structure should be further optimized in Suzhou, and advanced energy technologies should be introduced to improve energy efficiency, especially for the power generation sector, and the proportion of clean energy such as gas should be further expanded.