Predicting the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus with the New Chinese Diabetes Risk Score in a Cohort Study

Abstract

Objectives: The New Chinese Diabetes Risk Score (NCDRS) is a noninvasive tool to assess the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the Chinese population. Our study aimed to evaluate the performance of the NCDRS in predicting T2DM risk with a large cohort.Methods: The NCDRS was calculated, and participants were categorized into groups by optimal cutoff or quartiles. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidential intervals (CIs) in Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between the baseline NCDRS and the risk of T2DM. The performance of the NCDRS was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC).Results: The T2DM risk was significantly increased in participants with NCDRS ≥25 (HR = 2.12, 95% CI 1.88–2.39) compared with NCDRS <25 after adjusting for potential confounders. T2DM risk also showed a significant increasing trend from the lowest to the highest quartile of NCDRS. The AUC was 0.777 (95% CI 0.640–0.786) with a cutoff of 25.50.Conclusion: The NCDRS had a significant positive association with T2DM risk, and the NCDRS is valid for T2DM screening in China.