Trend Analysis of the Mortality Rates of the Top Three Causes of Death Among Chinese Residents from 2003 to 2019

Abstract

Objective: To delineate the mortality trends of malignant tumors, heart disease and cerebrovascular disease in China.Methods: The crude mortality from 2003 to 2019 was derived from the China Health Statistical Yearbook, and the mortality rates were analyzed through joinpoint regression supplemented by descriptive statistics and χ2 tests.Results: The fitting model of age-standardized mortality due to malignant tumors showed three joinpoints. The APCs from 2003 to 2005, 2005–2008, 2008–2012 and 2012–2019 were −11.00%, 9.63%, −4.67% and −1.40%, respectively, and the AAPC was −1.54%. The mortality rate of cerebrovascular disease consistently decreased (APC = AAPC = −0.98%). In the subgroup analyses, significant differences were observed between sexes and regions. The mortality rate of heart disease among rural females exhibited an upward trend (APC = AAPC = 2.33%). Older adults aged over 75 years had the highest mortality rates and the most drastic change.Conclusion: The three diseases had variable change trends. The government should focus more on policies that promote the equalization of basic public health services. Continuous education on heart disease, which includes not only beneficial behaviors but also knowledge of first aid, should be strengthened for rural females.