Machine learning analysis of complex late gadolinium enhancement patterns to improve risk prediction of major arrhythmic events

Abstract

BackgroundMachine learning analysis of complex myocardial scar patterns affords the potential to enhance risk prediction of life-threatening arrhythmia in stable coronary artery disease (CAD).ObjectiveTo assess the utility of computational image analysis, alongside a machine learning (ML) approach, to identify scar microstructure features on late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance (LGE-CMR) that predict major arrhythmic events in patients with CAD.MethodsPatients with stable CAD were prospectively recruited into a CMR registry. Shape-based scar microstructure features characterizing heterogeneous (‘peri-infarct’) and homogeneous (‘core’) fibrosis were extracted. An ensemble of machine learning approaches were used for risk stratification, in addition to conventional analysis using Cox modeling.ResultsOf 397 patients (mean LVEF 45.4 ± 16.0) followed for a median of 6 years, 55 patients (14%) experienced a major arrhythmic event. When applied within an ML model for binary classification, peri-infarct zone (PIZ) entropy, peri-infarct components and core interface area outperformed a model representative of the current standard of care (LVEF<35% and NYHA>Class I): AUROC (95%CI) 0.81 (0.81–0.82) vs. 0.64 (0.63–0.65), p = 0.002. In multivariate cox regression analysis, these features again remained significant after adjusting for LVEF<35% and NYHA>Class I: PIZ entropy hazard ratio (HR) 1.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.38–2.56, p < 0.001; number of PIZ components HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.08–1.67, p = 0.009; core interface area HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.29–1.99, p = <0.001.ConclusionMachine learning models using LGE-CMR scar microstructure improved arrhythmic risk stratification as compared to guideline-based clinical parameters; highlighting a potential novel approach to identifying candidates for implantable cardioverter defibrillators in stable CAD.