External validation of the SWEDEHEART score for predicting in-hospital major bleeding among East Asian patients with acute myocardial infarction

Abstract

BackgroundRisk scores for predicting in-hospital major bleeding in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are rare. The Swedish web-system for the enhancement and development of evidence-based care in heart disease evaluated according to recommended therapies (SWEDEHEART) score (SS), consisting of five common clinical variables, is a novel model for predicting in-hospital major bleeding. External validation of SS has not yet been completed.Methods and resultsA retrospective study recruiting consecutive East Asian patients diagnosed with AMI was conducted in the Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University. The primary endpoint was the ability of SS to predict in-hospital major bleeding, which was defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) type 3 or 5 bleeding. To validate SS, the discrimination and calibration were assessed in the overall population and several subgroups. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the areas under ROC curves (AUCs) were calculated for discrimination. The calibration of SS was evaluated with the unreliability U test. A total of 2,841 patients diagnosed with AMI during hospitalization were included, and 1.94% (55) of them experienced in-hospital major bleeding events. The AUC of SS for the whole population was only 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.52–0.67], without an acceptable calibration (p = 0.001). Meanwhile, the highest AUC (0.72; 95% CI, 0.61–0.82) of SS for the primary endpoint was found in the diabetes subgroup, with an acceptable calibration (p = 0.87).ConclusionThis external validation study showed that SS failed to exhibit sufficient accuracy in predicting in-hospital major bleeding among East Asian patients with AMI despite demonstrating acceptable performance in the diabetic subgroup of patients. Studies to uncover optimal prediction tools for in-hospital major bleeding risk in AMI are urgently warranted.