Performance Evaluation of an Earthquake Early Warning System in the 2019–2020 M6.0 Changning, Sichuan, China, Seismic Sequence

Abstract

China is currently building a nationwide earthquake early warning system (EEWS) which will be completed in June 2023. Several regions have been selected as pilot areas for instrumentation, software system and dissemination verification. For these regions, their construction tasks will be completed in advance with trial runs being carried out in June 2021. Before the trial operation, we need to understand the actual processing capabilities of different EEWSs. In this work, we focus on the system deployed in Sichuan province and evaluate its real-time performance during the 2019–2020 M6.0 Changning seismic sequence. This period was divided into two stages. The first stage was the time from the occurrence of the M6.0 (Mw5.7) mainshock (June 17, 2019) to the end of October 2019 with no MEMS-based stations around the Changning seismic sequence deployed and most of the broadband and short period seismic stations not upgraded to low latency streaming, and the second one was from the beginning of November 2019 to March 2021 with deployments of more than 700 MEMS-based stations and low latency upgrades of ∼30 seismic stations. Median errors for the epicentral locations, depths and magnitude estimations were almost the same for both stages, 1.5 ± 6.0 km, 0.0 ± 3.6 km and −0.1 ± 0.46 for the first stage and 2.3 ± 3.0 km, −3.0 ± 3.6 km and −0.2 ± 0.32 for the second one. However, an obvious underestimation of the magnitude for earthquakes with M 5.0 + occurring in the first stage was observed, which would be caused by the clipped waveforms, sensors deployed in short period seismic stations and MEMS-based stations, the adopted magnitude estimation method, and the method used to computer the network magnitude. The median reporting time was significantly improved from 10.5 ± 3.0 s after origin time for the first stage to 6.3 ± 3.5 s for the second stage because of introduction of newly deployed MEMS-based stations. The results obtained from the second stage indicate that the system has entered a stable operating stage and we can officially launch the trial operation in the pilot areas for public early warning services.