Spatiotemporal differences in dominant drivers of streamflow evolution on the Loess Plateau

Abstract

Previous studies have found that climate change and underlying surface change are the most direct and important drivers of the streamflow change in the Yellow River Basin. However, there are significant spatial differences in climate and underlying surface in the Yellow River Basin, especially in the Loess Plateau, attribution analysis of runoff evolution in the Loess Plateau from the perspective of spatial heterogeneity was rarely reported. Therefore, in order to further reveal the causes of runoff evolution in the Loess Plateau, this study have quantitatively revealed the spatial differences of climate and underlying surface changes driving streamflow changes in 34 main Loess Plateau basins from 1956 to 2020 basing on the Budyko equation with fixed parameters. Results show that the streamflow on the Loess Plateau decreased significantly from 1956 to 2020, and streamflow decreased by 17.19 mm (26.95%) after abrupt change in 1990. The sensitivity coefficients of streamflow change on the Loess Plateau to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface parameters are 0.30, −0.08 and −69.26 respectively. The contributions of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface change to streamflow change were 26.24%, 2.15% and 73.01%, respectively, and showed significant spatiotemporal differences. The spatial variability of streamflow is mainly controlled by underlying surface. For 29 of the whole 34 tributaries, underlying surface change was the dominant driver of streamflow change with the contribution of 52.50%–98.22%. The temporal variability of streamflow on the Loess Plateau is mainly controlled by precipitation. The wetter the climate is, the more sensitive of the streamflow changes are to climate change. And the smaller the underlying surface parameters are, the more sensitive the streamflow changes are to the underlying surface change. The results further deepen our understanding for the response of streamflow to climate and underlying surface changes in the Loess Plateau and can provide theoretical support for systematic regulation of basin water resources in the future.