Hazard assessment of seismic-collapsed loess landslides on the Loess Plateau as exemplified by the M6.2 earthquake in Jishishan County, China

Abstract

The Loess Plateau is marked by intense neotectonic activity and frequent earthquakes. Its unique physico-mechanical properties, combined with the granular overhead pore structure of loess, render it prone to seismic landslides triggered by strong earthquakes. Different types of loess seismic landslides have distinct formation mechanisms, disaster-causing characteristics, and risk assessment programs. In this study, the risk of seismic-collapsed loess landslides as one of the types of loess seismic landslides was evaluated on the Loess Plateau. A risk zoning map for seismic-collapsed loess landslides on the Loess Plateau, considering various exceedance probabilities, was compiled by assessing eight factors. These factors include peak ground acceleration, microstructure of loess, and were evaluated using both the minimum disaster-causing seismic peak ground acceleration zoning method and the analytic hierarchy process. The following conclusions were obtained: (1) Earthquakes are the primary inducing factor for seismic-collapsed loess landslides, with other factors serving as influencers, among which the microstructure of loess carries the highest weight; (2) Across various exceedance probabilities, the likelihood of seismic-collapsed loess landslides occurring at 63% of the 50-year exceedance probability is low. Moreover, as the minimum hazard-causing seismic peak ground acceleration increases, the risk of occurrence of seismic-collapsed loess landslides rises, leading to a gradual expansion of the area share in moderate and high-risk zones; (3) Hazard evaluation results align well with existing data on seismic-collapsed loess landslides and findings from field investigations. The case of seismic-collapsed loess landslides induced by the M6.2 magnitude earthquake in Jishishan County, China, is presented as an illustration. The combined use of the minimum hazard-causing seismic peak ground acceleration zoning method and the analytic hierarchy process method offers a reference for geohazard hazard assessment, with earthquakes as the primary inducing factor and other factors as influencers.