Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of an Earthquake on Rainfall Thresholds for Triggering Debris-Flow Events

Abstract

The impacts of destructive earthquakes on rainfall thresholds for triggering the debris flows have not yet been well investigated, due to lacks of data. In this study, we have collected the debris-flow records from the Wenchuan, Lushan, and Jiuzhaigou earthquake-affected areas in Sichuan Province, China. By using a meteorological dataset with 3 h and 0.1° resolutions, the dimensionless effective rainfall and rainfall intensity-duration relationships were calculated as the possible thresholds for triggering the debris flows. The pre- and post-seismic thresholds were compared to evaluate the impacts of the various intensities of earthquakes. Our results indicate that the post-quake thresholds are much smaller than the pre-seismic ones. The dimensionless effective rainfall shows the impacts of the Wenchuan, Lushan, and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes to be ca. 26, 27, and 16%, respectively. The Wenchuan earthquake has the most significant effect on lowering the rainfall intensity-duration curve. Rainfall threshold changes related to the moment magnitude and focal depth are discussed as well. Generally, this work may lead to an improved post-quake debris-flow warning strategy especially in sparsely instrumented regions.