Are eruptions reliable precursors to marine volcano collapses?

Abstract

Volcanoes are sources of numerous threats including lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash dispersal and landslides or sector collapses. In addition to these commonly known volcanic hazards, volcano-induced tsunamis can occur in the marine environment, introducing a major hazard that can affect populations located far away from the volcanoes. Existing tsunami warning systems generally do not account for volcano-generated tsunamis, due to the multiple source mechanisms that can cause such tsunamis, a limited understanding of precursory signals for these events, and the need for local detection rather than remote sensing. Among these source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis, sector and lateral collapses are at the high risk-low frequency extreme of risk matrices. Marine volcanoes grow in specific environments, with factors like marine clays, constant full saturation, sediment transport and remobilization, interaction with ocean dynamics, and sea level changes that may impact edifice stability in distinct ways. The majority of historically documented marine volcano collapses occurred at erupting volcanoes, suggesting that eruptions could serve as a remotely detectable warning signal for collapses. However, careful examination of temporal sequences of these examples reveals that collapses do not always follow eruptions. Consequently, there is a need for identifying other, more robust precursors to volcano collapse, in particular in the marine environment, where the consequences of collapses may be widespread.