The north–south shift of the ridge location of the western Pacific subtropical high and its influence on the July precipitation in the Jianghuai region from 1978 to 2021

Abstract

The Jianghuai region is the area between the Yangtze River and the Huai River in China and is a densely populated agriculture region therefore, the economics and human activity there are significantly affected by the precipitation changes, particularly during the summer when extreme storms and droughts normally occur. It will be helpful if the summer precipitation changes can be predicted. The monthly ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data from 1978 to 2021 are used in this study to investigate the relationship between the ridge latitudinal location of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the precipitation in July over the Jianghuai region. The results show that the WPSH ridge location has an important impact on the amount and spatial distribution of the precipitation in this region. When the ridge was northward, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation will appear over the western Pacific, leading to the weakening of the summer monsoon and the reduction of moisture transport from the Indian Ocean, therefore decreasing precipitation in the Jianghuai region, while the situation is opposite when the ridge was southward. The Niño 3.4 index in March and the India–Burma trough intensity index in June have significant correlations with the July WPSH ridge location, and both can be used as precursors to predict the WPSH ridge location and, therefore, the precipitation in this region.