The Sub-Daily Variability of Aerosol Loading and Associated Radiative Forcing Over the Indian Region

Abstract

The sub-daily variability of aerosols affects the estimates of daily mean aerosol loading. However, large spatial scale estimates of their climate effects are mostly based on snapshots from low orbit satellites that may bias the mean estimate for daily, monthly, or annual timescales. In this study, an attempt is made to estimate the magnitude of such bias based on ground and satellite-based datasets. Using ground-based measurements, we show an apparent asymmetry (of the order of 10–50%) in the sub-daily variability of aerosol loading over the Indian region. For the first time, it is reported that this sub-daily variability has a spatial pattern with an increasing amplitude toward the east of the subcontinent. We also find this variability in aerosol loading is well-captured by the satellites but with a lower amplitude. Our study shows that such differences could alter the annual surface radiative forcing estimates by more than ∼15 W m−2 over this region. We find that NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), a state-of-the-art model-based chemical reanalysis, is unable to capture these sub-daily variabilities. This implies that both model and satellite-based radiative forcing estimates for large spatial scales should improve aerosol sub-daily information/variabilities for obtaining reliable radiative forcing estimates.