Towards landslide space-time forecasting through machine learning: the influence of rainfall parameters and model setting

Abstract

Landslide susceptibility assessment using machine learning models is a popular and consolidated approach worldwide. The main constraint of susceptibility maps is that they are not adequate for temporal assessments: they are generated from static predisposing factors, allowing only a spatial prediction of landslides. Recently, some methodologies have been proposed to provide spatiotemporal landslides prediction starting from machine learning algorithms (e.g., combining susceptibility maps with rainfall thresholds), but the attempt to obtain a dynamic landslide probability map directly by applying machine learning models is still in the preliminary phase. This work provides a contribution to fix this gap, combining in a Random Forest (RF) algorithm a static indicator of the spatial probability of landslide occurrence (i.e., a classical susceptibility index) and a number of dynamic variables (i.e., seasonality and the rainfall amount cumulated over different reference periods). The RF implementation used in this work allows the calculation of the Out-of-Bag Error and depicts Partial Dependence Plots, two indices that were used to quantify the variables’ importance and to comprehend if the model outcomes are consistent with the triggering mechanism observed in the case of study (Metropolitan City of Florence, Italy). The goal of this research is not to set up a landslide probability map, but to 1) understand how to populate training and test datasets with observations sampled over space and time, 2) assess which rainfall variables are statistically more relevant for the identification of the time and location of landslides, and 3) test the dynamic application of RF in a forecasting model for the spatiotemporal prediction of landslides. The proposed dynamic methodology shows encouraging results, consistent with the actual knowledge of the physical mechanism of the triggering of shallow landslides (mainly influenced by short and intense rainfalls) and identifies some benchmark configurations that represents a promising starting point for future regional-scale applications of machine learning models to dynamic landslide probability assessment and early warning.