Statistical analysis of ionospheric vertical total electron content anomalies before global Mw≥6.0 shallow earthquakes during 2000–2020

Abstract

To quantitatively investigate the relationship between earthquakes and ionospheric anomalies, this paper presents a statistical study of pre-earthquake vertical total electron content (VTEC) variations. A total of 1522 shallow (≤60 km) strong (Mw≥6.0) earthquakes in the global area during 2000-2020 are selected, and classified according to different magnitudes, latitudes and focal depths. A quartile-based process with different lengths of sliding windows, equaling 10 days, 15 days and 27 days, respectively, has been utilized to detect VTEC anomalies. The abnormal level is first defined, and then VTEC anomalies occurrence probabilities (Po) and occurrence rates (PE) within 1-10 days before 1522 earthquakes have been calculated. Besides, VTEC anomalies occurrence rates of the background days (PN) are also calculated. The results show that the significant correlation between Po and epicentral latitudinal locations could be observed within 1-10 days before earthquakes. The values of Po increase with larger magnitudes in the equatorial and low-latitude regions, but decrease with greater magnitudes in the mid- and high-latitude regions to some degree. Within 1-5 days before earthquakes, the overall trend of PE shows an increase with larger magnitudes, but the correlation between the values of PE and magnitudes is relatively weak in the southern mid- and high-latitude regions. There is no evident causality between PN and the magnitude, and most of the values of PE/PN are larger than 1, indicating that VTEC anomalies within a few days before earthquakes are probably related with the forthcoming earthquakes. Moreover, when the abnormal level exceeds 60%, different sliding window lengths have a significant impact on the values of Po and PE in the mid- and high-latitude regions. In particular, there are obvious systematic deviations between the values of Po obtained from different sliding windows in the southern mid- and high-latitude regions. However, the selection of the optimal sliding window needs to be further studied.