The effects of intraseasonal oscillations on landfalling tropical cyclones in the Philippines during the boreal summer

Abstract

As a kind of weather phenomenon with destructive wind and heavy rainfall, tropical cyclones (TCs), especially the landing TCs, can cause severer economic damage and losses of life. Philippines is one of the countries mostly affected by Tropical cyclones (TCs). Based on the best-track TC data and global atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data, the present paper investigates the isolated and combined effects of two intraseasonal oscillations, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), on landfall of TCs in the Philippines during boreal summer (May-September) in 1979-2019. The results show that both the MJO and the QBWO can significantly affect the frequency, landfall intensity, location, and translation speed of TCs that make landfall in the Philippines. During the convective (non-convective) phases of the MJO and the QBWO, more (less) frequent and stronger (weaker) TCs make landfall in the Philippines. This is due to the increased (decreased) frequency of TCs formation in the NWP and environmental factors in the region east of the Philippines that are favorable (unfavorable) for the development of TCs. With the northward propagation of the convective signals of the MJO and QBWO, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) shifts eastward, and the steering flow is unfavorable for westward movement of NWP TCs. This, in turn, causes a northward shift in the landfall locations and a decrease in the translation speed of TCs. These results are helpful for the prediction of the TCs affecting the Philippines.